Texas Hold'Em

Yesterday, I was pondering over the seemingly irreconcilable two paths that the regime seemed to be taking. One the Cubazuela option, the other possible negotiations with the Empire.

The former may actually be a hedge.

With the situation in Venezuela deteriorating amidst a student rebellion and Hugo Chavez’s former Defense Minister stating that Chavez’s constitutional reforms are tantamount to a “coup”, things aren’t as rosy in Miraflores as they seemed a few months ago when Hugo was riding a wave of popularity after his “re-election.” Mutiny in the Military, the “C” word AND students in the streets-not a good combination in Latin America.

Taking back the streets by squelching the Venezuelan student protests will probably require military force since the police and sending out armed violent thugs hasn’t worked. That may be the straw that breaks the Venezuelan Military Camel’s back.

If Cuba’s goose that laid the golden oil barrel cannot withstand a military challenge, Raul knows that he will have to deal or fold. By sending Jorge Bolaños to D.C. and overseeing a seemingly kindler gentler dictatorship, Raul may be positioning Cuba to deal rather than fold. Communists always deal. They’ll mark the cards and keep up an ace up their sleeve, but they’ll deal.

The problem is the The Empire’s only interest in not allowing Cuba’s communist regime to fold is stability-defined by the US as no mass exodus. The Bush administration, however has not-so-quietly started to build refugee camps to deal with any mass migratory situations and the President raised the stakes in his Cuba speech a few weeks by reaffirming the Havelian axiom of freedom before stability.