06 February 2008

Scary "Intelligence"

Pablo Bachelet has an article in yesterday’s Miami Herald about the Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell's annual threat assessment report presented Tuesday before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

Basically, the “intelligence” they referred to, at least when it comes to Cuba and Venezuela, seems to come straight from newspapers. These guys are scary.

The big revelation is that Hugo Chavez is a threat…duh.

As far as Cuba, Bachalet had 2 interesting tidbits in there:

The report also addresses the widely reported -- but not publicly acknowledged -- differences between Raúl Castro and Chávez. The ''sidelining of Fidel Castro in favor of his brother Raúl may lead to a period of adjustment in Venezuela's relations with Cuba,'' McConnell states.

No mention of the two, maybe three, different factions within the high levels of the Cuban government all jockeying for position for when Fidel kicks the proverbial bucket.

It also highlights that the US policy towards Cuba seems to be driven by the fear that at some point, thousands of the Cuban huddled masses, yearning to be free, will jump into the Florida straights in anything that floats and head north:

''Policy missteps or the mishandling of a crisis by the leadership,'' McConnell said, ``could lead to political instability in Cuba raising the risk of mass migration.''

Maybe it’s me, but it seems that the US is rooting for Raul here, hoping that he and his thugs don’t take any “missteps” or “mishandle” any crisis to prevent the feared mass exodus.

Cuba is one big crisis. No food, no shelter, no transportation all wrapped a suffocating repression. Make no mistake, when McConell says ''Policy missteps or the mishandling of a crisis by the leadership,'' he means Raul losing his oppressive control over the population, he means the Cubans taking to the streets, he means the chaos and instability from which a new Cuba will rise.

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