20 December 2006

US Starts Dealing

Yesterday we learned that Condoleeza Rice is expecting Cubans to demand democratization and that the international community should also put pressure on the Cuban regime, via the UN and the OAS.

Where did that come from?

The State Department has taken this whole Cuban transition scenario rather confidently as if they had an ace up their sleeve or at least a very effective plan that has a high certainty of success.

Bluffing? I boubt it . This is high stakes poker.

At times, to be honest, the State Department’s level of confidence while putting forth nothing more than their insistance that it's up to the Cubans in Cuba to decide their own future, has made me suspect drug use at the highest levels.

The one thing that is clear is that nothing will happen until Fidel Castro is dead.

Today John Maisto, US Ambassador to the OAS, said that now is the opportune time to for member States to act as a group to ensure democratic change in Cuba.

One card up.

If OAS member states refuse to recognize Raul Castro’s regime as legitimate, what then?

So it appears that one of the United State's plans will be to try to pressure Cuba into giving its citizens the Human Rights granted them under the Inter-American Human Rights Letter through the OAS. Once Castro is out of the way, member states who feared Castro, might be more willing to excert pressure. Canada and Costa Rica share the American vision for a free and Democratic Cuba.

Given the international support if not adulation of Castro and his totalitarian regime, I'm not feeling too optimistic that the AOS members will do the right thing and urge for democratic changes in Cuba.

The Cuban regime's options can be sweetened, however. OAS member Nations have always condemmed the US's economic sanctions on Cuba. A diplomatic deal brokered by the OAS would welcome Cuba back into the OAS and lift all sanctions if Cuba would agree to abide by the organization's Human Rights declaration. The alternative would be to have an isolated government that is not recognized as legitimate.

We will see after the funeral. To see the rest of the hand.

Raul will, of course, try to rely on marked cards and dealing from the bottom of the deck.

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